WHERE WILL THE PAST DECADE'S DISCOVERIES LEAD US?
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Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Southwest Research Institute
At the end of each year we humans love to take a look backward and review the changes that the passing year has brought. That urge is even stronger when we come to the end of a decade. The folks at National Geographic have provided a great overview of twenty of the key scientific advances of the 2010-2019 decade here, and there were some exciting ones: the discovery of thousands of planets around other stars, fantastic close-up views of Pluto, Vesta, and the Kuiper Belt object named Arrokoth, dramatic progress in rocket launching technology, the gene-splicing potential of Crispr-Cas9, and new insights into our ancient human ancestors. There was also one looming shadow over everything: the spectre of human-caused climate change.
For a refresher on the science, read the article and maybe follow the links or do research on your own to learn even more. But a science fiction writer can’t help but look at a list like this and wonder which of these developments will have the greatest impact on the human race in the years, decades, and centuries to come.
New knowledge about the ancient past of our species and others is fascinating, but barring major surprises (like finding out we’re descended from aliens) it probably won’t have much effect on how we move forward as a race. I believe that what we’re learning about the universe beyond our planet will have a bigger impact: not only knowing that there are potentially hundreds of habitable planets we might someday reach, but also that organic molecules—the building blocks of life—are present even on other planets and moons of our own solar system. Add to that the data we’re gathering about other celestial objects from asteroids, to comets, to dwarf planets, and recently two visitors from outside our solar system (the object Oumuamua and Comet Borisov), plus the rapid improvements in the technology we use to get beyond the atmosphere and function in outer space. These advancements all mean that the prospect of breaking out of our cradle Earth to other worlds is coming closer and closer to reality. I know that SF writers have often been overly optimistic on this subject, but I really do think it will happen within the lifetime of today’s children, and it will change everything.
Humans will live on other planets, maybe someday in other solar systems. There’s a good chance we’ll find life on those planets. We might even meet other thinking beings with advanced civilizations. All of those things are huge.
Sooner than space colonization, though, we’re going to witness the ramifications of gene-splicing technologies like Crispr-Cas9 along with rapidly advancing reproductive science. These things won’t just affect where we live, they will impact what we are as human beings. We could eliminate devastating genetic conditions, horrible diseases, and maybe even repair severe physical injuries. But we might also choose to “improve” the human body via cloning, tailored genes, and nanites (like microscopic repair robots in the human bloodstream), and those alterations could just as easily become driven by fashion as by medical necessity. Sure we’ll choose to bequeath our children with good genetic health. Will we also arrange for them to be born with cat’s eyes? Webbed fingers and toes? Genius IQs? We will link computer interfaces directly to our brains, and order replacement organs every few decades. The very definition of what it means to be human could change in ways we can’t even foresee now. I’d wager we’ll face some very challenging decisions on this front before the coming decade is through. The processes are already here, we’ve just been really lax about deciding how far they should go.
Yet even space travel and extreme human modification are a little ways off. The most imminent development we face as a race is global climate change.
We’ve had warnings about it since the 1970’s. Week after week we learn more. And even the frightening forecasts of climate scientists consistently turn out to be too conservative. Polar ice is melting, ocean levels are rising, coral is bleaching, extreme storms are increasing in frequency and strength. Our coastal communities will flood and dry regions will become full-blown deserts, forcing millions of refugees to flee across borders, sparking international conflicts. Food production will be threatened as weather ruins crops and fisheries are depleted.
That’s not being alarmist, that’s just science.
Bottom line? Climate change is, hands down, the most critical science story of the decade we’ve just lived through, and will have the biggest impact in the decade to come. If we can survive the mess we’ve made of our home planet, things could look very bright. We know that we can further reduce the suffering caused by disease and injury and continue to extend the human lifespan. We can find other places for us to live and ways to adapt ourselves to living there, which will relieve the population pressure that has caused so many of the current problems here on Earth.
2010-2019 has been a ground-breaking decade.
The decade to come just might be “make or break” for the human race.
