THE MOON IS COOL AGAIN

If you’re a space geek you’re aware that China has a lunar probe and rover active on the Moon right now. If you haven’t watched the video of the landing you can find it here. A pretty fast drop to the surface but, what the heck, everything seems to be working—the Jade Rabbit rover deployed and is busy checking out the Sea of Rains. The Chang'e-3 spacecraft follows a couple of preparatory fly-by missions by China, and lots of fly-bys by other countries over the past decades, but it’s the first landing since the Russian Luna 24 in 1976. That’s quite a long time between actual visits. Yet it’s just the beginning of a resurgence: missions over the coming decade include a joint Russia/Sweden/Switzerland lander set for 2016, a lander and rover from India in 2017, a lander and rover from Japan in 2018, and a U.S. venture also in 2018 with help from Canada and Japan. Those are just the government projects. We shouldn’t discount the Google Lunar X-Prize competition which will give $20 million to the first private team that successfully lands a spacecraft on the Moon’s surface and sends back some meaningful data. So far, one of the leading contenders is a company called Astrobotic, which plans to deliver a lander there in 2015.

Why the renewed interest in that big ball of dust hanging in the sky? (Now that we know it’s not made of cheese, it can’t be because of a shortage of fancy salad dressing). One possible answer lies in the reasons behind yet another lunar rover project tentatively scheduled for 2018. That one’s from the Shackleton Energy Company, expressly formed in 2007 to get into the business of mining the Moon. Their plan appears to be to harvest significant deposits of ice and/or extract oxygen from lunar rocks to free up gases that can be used as fuel. After all, any further development of the Moon and certainly any exploitation of the rest of the solar system will require a lot of fuel, and the stuff is very expensive to haul up all the way from the Earth’s surface.

Ultimately, the other missions are likely about mining the Moon’s resources, too. China has indicated that they’re especially interested in so called rare earths—minerals that are essential to a whole list of technologies from lasers to X-ray machines to PET scanners and more. They’re not easy to come by in commercial quantities. China is already the largest supplier and has been cutting back on exports, causing worldwide concern.

So it’s not some romantic notion of making inroads into the final frontier, or even the hunt for a big black buried monolith from an alien race that is drawing human interest back to the Moon. It’s money—plain and simple. But then, the end of the Apollo missions should have taught us that national vanity and ideological competition aren’t enough over the long haul.

When Is Good News Bad News?

When is good news bad news? When the good news is about climate change.

Some leaked reports obtained by the Associated Press indicate that the rate of global warming has slowed down in the past fifteen years, even though greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere have continued to rise. The rate of warming from 1998 to 2012 was only about half the rate of the years since 1951. That’s good news, right? Well, not if it gives climate change deniers yet another opportunity to attack the science and encourage everyone to keep burning fossil fuels like there’s no tomorrow.

Friday September 27, 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will begin to present its latest update, and as scientists have gathered in Stockholm to prepare, there has been disagreement on how to deal with the awkward fact of the slower warming rate, and whether or not to even exclude it from the report. Countries have objected to the short 15-year length of the measurement. Others say 1998 was an exceptionally warm year, and a bad starting point. The U.S. is pushing the favourite explanation: that the deep ocean is absorbing more heat than originally expected. But it would be a mistake to hide or obscure any findings. The deep pockets of the oil companies and other industrial interests will ensure that there are lots of voices willing to twist the truth, hide it, or outright deny it. Climate scientists must show that they’re above that and adhere to the strictest standards of full disclosure. The coming report will likely assert that scientists are 95% certain that humans are mostly to blame for the rise in global temperatures over the past sixty years. In science 95% is huge.

Let’s not forget that, in spite of a slower warming rate, the past decade was still the warmest on record and this decade is on track to beat it. Let’s not forget the shocking number of extreme weather events of the past few years, especially massive storms and devastating flooding, even though the rate of warming was slower than expected. Climate science has to be among the most complex of all areas of study, with an unthinkable number of variables to account for. So predictions are bound to have a margin of error. If the rate of warming was an error, at least we’ve come out on the good side so far, but it is no excuse to discount the rest of the science and stay complacent about climate change, doing nothing. (And believe me, as a citizen of Canada, a country that’s gone from having one of the best environmental reputations in the world to one of the worst in the span of one administration, I’m not pointing fingers.)

I’m struck by the fact that millions of people have sacrificed their lives in wars to stop oppressive forms of government—fascism, Nazism, communism, and other –isms—for the sake of future generations. Yet we’re not even willing to make sacrifices to our lifestyle to save our children and their children from a global climate that no form of government will be able to alleviate.

Science fiction writers and fans imagine apocalypses for fun, but when faced with real threats we turn to our faith that science will provide a solution. Well, sometimes science can only offer a warning.

The rest is up to us.

WILL THE HYPERLOOP REALLY HELP?

The man who is said to have inspired Robert Downey Jr.’s portrayal of “Iron Man” in the movies made a big teaser announcement this week. Entrepreneur Elon Musk (co-founder of PayPal and founder of Tesla Motors and SpaceX) proclaimed that he will reveal the alpha design of a transportation system he says will become the fifth key mode of transportation in the world (after cars, planes, trains, and boats). He calls it the Hyperloop, and he describes it as "a cross between a Concorde, a railgun and an air hockey table." We’ll have to wait until August 12^th to find out what exactly that means, but educated guessers believe it will be passenger-carrying pods that will travel in sealed tubes, floating by magnetic levitation or something similar, perhaps in a surrounding zone of fast-moving air. Musk envisions the Hyperloop being built across the continent, so that you could travel from San Francisco to Los Angeles in just minutes, and from there to New York City in under an hour.

Fast? Yeah, you could say that. So does that mean it will be a game-changer, bringing about a new world of mobility? Maybe. But I’m not really convinced that faster always means better. A few minutes of thought made me to realize there are many things the Hyperloop won’t help, like:

- the two-hour drive to your cottage/camp that becomes five hours on a Friday night.

- the high-polluting, gas-guzzling journey your vegetables make from California to your dinner table.

- the family vacation trip that doesn’t include Los Angeles, San Francisco or New York City.

- the price of gasoline (do you think lower demand on a few long distance routes will convince oil companies to lower prices? Seriously?)

- the billboard advertising industry.

- your accumulation of frequent flyer points.

- lost luggage (it will just get to other cities without you much faster.)

In fact, the Hyperloop could outright destroy:

- excuses not to visit relatives you don’t like.

- scenery-watching (and any true, personal grasp of geography.)

- all hope of escaping the psycho ex-girlfriend.

- your last chance to catch up on your reading.

- the road trip movie (OK, some of these will be good things.)

I’m sure you can come up with dozens more like this. Either way, Musk claims the Hyperloop will cost much less to build than high speed rail, and I am in favour of getting as many trucks and cars off the road as possible. So, Mr. Musk, I’ll be watching on August 12^th to see what you’ve come up with, and if any partners are ready to jump aboard with you.

And, really, work on the lost luggage thing while you’re at it, OK?

THE WORLD'S SMALLEST MOVIE

Most of the time I post about big issues—BIG as in outer space. But innerspace fascinates me too. Recently, I’ve been shopping around an SF thriller novel I’ve written that takes the reader down to the molecular level. So I got a kick out of this story:

IBM decided to illustrate some of the methods they’re using to explore the limits of data storage. They created the world’s smallest movie. "A Boy and His Atom" is a simple animated stick-figure story--it looks like an early Pong game. What makes it special is that it was created by moving carbon monoxide molecules around with an electron scanning microscope and then using the same microscope to capture each frame of the movie. Amazing!

You can read more here, and watch the video itself on YouTube. Be sure to continue watching to see how it was done.

Maybe it will show kids that science can be cool, and start some future scientists on their career path. I hope so. It also shows that the universe is still ripe with potential at the sub-atomic level, and we’re making progress. I’d better get my novel sold before science catches up with my story.

If there are any agents or editors reading this who cut their SF teeth on “Fantastic Voyage”, drop me a line!

SCIENCE ANYONE? ANYONE AT ALL...?

I’ve posted before about Mars One, the Dutch-based project that plans to send four astronauts to found a colony on Mars in the year 2023. They officially began taking applications on April 22 and at last word have received 30,000 of them. They expect at least 500,000 by the end of August when the application window ends. Half a million people claiming they want to make a one-way trip to live on Mars for the rest of their (possibly very short) lives!

The applicants have come from all over the world. I found it really disturbing when one article I read quoted a 39-year-old bookseller in China offering his reasons for going, including that “the air must be a lot fresher and easier to breathe than here.” Uh…that would be a No. No breathable air. Temperatures that make Antarctica look good. No liquid water, no plants, no animals, no shopping malls, no hospitals, no restaurants, theatres, hockey rinks, ball fields…. No fresh supplies if a subsequent rocket malfunctions, either. And no escape from your three human companions. Do I need to go on?

My point is, how many of these applicants really know anything about Mars? How many people anywhere know any better? About real conditions in space? Or anything involving Astronomy? Particle Physics? Microbiology? Science…anyone?

We have vastly more scientific knowledge available to us than at any time in human history, often no more than a few mouse clicks away. Some of the most amazing scientific television programming is ready for public consumption all day every day. We have higher and higher rates of education, including college and university. But how many people really pay attention to all this science? Even the most basic stuff about our bodies, our planet, our solar system? If you think the gap between the ultra-wealthy and the rest of us is large (and it is), I’d have to believe that the gap between the science nerds and the average population is even larger, and growing all the time.

While huge numbers of people spend their nights watching “celebrities” risk life and limb on the dance floor and high diving board, and the antics of buffoonish rednecks in all their grotesque variety, the founders of tech companies are making the money and staking their territory in the future of the race.

The nerds won’t have any problem inheriting the Earth, ‘cause the rest of us just aren’t paying attention.

WALL STREET IN SPACE

When you think of space travel, do you think of NASA? The Russian space program? The Chinese government?

Old thinking, because the newest players in space may be taking over the game. I’m talking about global corporate interests. Big money. While governments continue to keep the budgets of organizations like NASA in near-starvation mode, the corporate stars of the world are stepping to the front of the line. People like Richard Branson of Virgin Airlines, Larry Page of Google, Elon Musk from PayPal, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. They’ve been getting together over martinis (or something expensive) and forming new companies to explore—and exploit—outer space. We’ve known for some years that Virgin Galactic plans to fly tourists to the edge of space and back (for $200,000 a crack, thank you very much), and they are getting closer to their first paying trips. I’ve written before about SpaceX, whose Dragon spacecraft are already flying supply missions to the International Space Station. But there are also new startup companies like Moon Express, preparing to build (and use) landers for the Moon. Planetary Resources intends to mine asteroids, and maybe even save us from those threatening meteor strikes we keep hearing about. Deep Space Industries is another would-be mining company. And we shouldn’t forget less commercial, but equally enterprising ventures like Inspiration Mars (mentioned in my last post), planning to send a married couple to Mars in about five years from now, and Mars One, a group that hopes to have a colony on the Red Planet by 2023.

These people are not fruitcakes, but some of the most successful entrepreneurs in the new economy. And their plans sound like fantastic dreams, but they’ve got solid scientists working with them. The space race is going corporate.

Was this inevitable? Since we taxpayers tend to cast our eyes closer to home on our hospitals and our roads, maybe governments just can’t continue to back the exploration of space and it’s up to the moneymakers to do it.

You can see the attraction for them. Talk about your offshore tax havens! Claim an asteroid and make the rules—who’s really going to stop them? Laws? The law of gravity is the only really important one, and it’ll ensure monopolies for the companies rich enough to break it. But lets not forget tourist opportunities: what high roller wouldn’t want to show off to his friends in a casino in Earth orbit, with all of we peasants zipping past below?

By the way, we’ll still be funding all of these ventures—by being the customers of Google, PayPal, Amazon and the like, and then buying the products these new companies bring back from way out there.

But we shouldn’t be surprised. Did you think Columbus sailed to America because he felt like tanning on a new beach?

MARRIAGE MARS-STYLE

Could your marriage stand sixteen months of togetherness with no chance of escape?

If the answer is Yes maybe you should sign up for the trip of a lifetime.

In case you missed it, Inspiration Mars, a private non-profit group, announced last week that they plan to send a man and a woman on a spaceflight to the Red Planet. The mission would involve a straightforward flight to our nearest planetary neighbour, one loop around it at a height of one hundred miles, and then the return to Earth. The proposed launch date is January 5^th, 2018 because at that time Earth and Mars will be in their best alignment for the shortest possible trip (which only happens twice every fifteen years) and, coincidentally, the sun will be at the lowest point of its eleven-year sunspot cycle. That reduces the hazard of solar radiation, although there will still be plenty left—enough that the astro-couple should be past their child-bearing years because the voyage will probably make them sterile. This isn’t just a fantasy: Inspiration Mars has the support of some big (and wealthy) names along with some reputable organizations and companies. The mission is intended to re-inspire the American people and provide an opportunity for important research.

The group wants a married couple so they’ll be able to give each other emotional support over such a long trip, far away from every other living soul.

Is that really the way it would work out? Let’s think about the possibilities:

The Good? Zero-gee sex. The Bad? With the way zero-gravity pools blood in the body, she may have a headache the whole trip.

The good: she’ll know exactly where he is every night. The bad: no girlfriend time…for either of them.

He’ll get to watch TV in the bedroom. On the other hand, if some of the funds come from filming a reality TV show, everyone on Earth could be watching them in the bedroom.

Good: there’ll only be room in the closet for one pair of her shoes. Bad: before the ship clears the orbit of the Moon his dirty socks will be floating everywhere.

He’ll look for any excuse not to shave or bathe. Zero-gee will make them both puffy: try to imagine 501 straight “fat days.”

And then when they turn to Dr. Phil for marriage counseling, it will take four minutes for the TV doctor’s questions to get to them by radio, so he’ll hear each answer eight minutes after he’s asked the question. Dr. Phil’s not that patient.

On the other hand, since the spacecraft won’t actually land on Mars but only make an uninterrupted round trip, that means the husband will be able to travel 374 million kilometers without stopping to ask directions.

This just might work.

SPACE EXPLORATION HELPS HERE ON EARTH

When the subject of space exploration comes up many people roll their eyes. Others complain outright about the waste of money. All too often people ask: what’s it for? What are we going to do out there anyway?

The answer to that would be a whole science and science fiction library in itself, so I decided to point out what space exploration efforts are doing for all of us right now, right here on Earth.

Most of us recognize that our whole system of modern communications depends on satellites in Earth orbit, from global phone and cell phone networks, to satellite TV, radio communications, GPS and more. If you think a while you might also remember that observer satellites help predict weather, crop yields, and pest infestations, not to mention giving warning of natural disasters like tornados and hurricanes (and yes, climate change). They can also locate mineral and fossil fuels deposits.

If you’re of a certain age you might remember that the NASA space program gave us Tang, Space Food Sticks, and dehydrated ice cream. But there’ve also been a few spin off benefits you might not know about:

- digital imaging technology created for the Moon landings is used in CT and MRI scanners.

- data storage software created to handle the reams of data from NASA satellites is now used by hospitals and businesses.

- material invented for the parachute shrouds of the Mars Viking landers is the heart of modern radial tires.

- the Jaws Of Life that save people trapped in car wrecks came from the system created to separate the space shuttle from its booster rockets.

- special metal alloys and micro-miniature components produced in space are helping to revolutionize medicine.

Even American speed skater Chris Witty, an Olympic record holder, owes her performance, in part, to skate blades sharpened by a tool created for the optics of the Hubble Space Telescope.

And believe me, those are only a few examples.

It isn’t simply that the mysterious black void of space, sprinkled with pretty sparkling lights has called to us since our cave-dwelling days. It’s the human capacity to look outward: to look beyond our small lives and communities to something larger, which has produced so many benefits we can also enjoy in our regular day-to-day lives.

I hope that never changes.

LET IT SNOW...IN 3D

There’s an old saying that no two snowflakes are alike. Apparently our best proof of that until now was a study from the 1970’s that captured snowflakes and put them between glass layers on microscope slides—a few thousand of them. Talk about an exercise in patience!

Now the science of snowflake research has taken a big leap forward with a specially-developed rig that uses three high-speed cameras and infrared sensors to take thousands of 3D pictures of falling snowflakes in a single night. It’s called the Multi Angle Snowflake Camera and the University of Utah researchers who developed it have already created a spin-off company to manufacture the things.

Why should we care? (Other than the fact that the pictures are really pretty, as you can see.) It turns out that snowflakes can be so different under various conditions that weather forecasters’ computer models (based on those 1970’s snowflakes) can’t accurately predict what they’ll do, which helps explains why forecasts of snowfall amounts can be so wrong. These new cameras might make a big difference. Just for fun, you can even watch a live feed of falling snow at the Alta Ski Area where the research was done (when it’s snowing).

Maybe soon this technology will be able to warn us when we’re going to have to come up with a major bribe for our neighbour with the snowblower.



MISSED US BY THAT MUCH

Astronomers had some good news for us this week. An asteroid called Apophis passed by in its orbit about fourteen million kilometers away from us. But if the name sounds familiar (beyond references in the Stargate TV series) it’s because in 2004 there were alarming predictions that Apophis could strike the Earth. It didn’t then, but scientists calculated that it would come close in 2029, and had a 1 in 250,000 chance of impacting our planet in 2036. Now, Apophis isn’t huge but it’s moving at tremendous speed, so it would cause a lot of local damage if it were to hit us (though not planet-wide extinctions).

This week’s pass gave astronomers a much better look at Apophis. The bad news is that it’s actually bigger than they’d earlier thought—about 325 meters in diameter. But the good news is that the chance of it hitting Earth in 3036 has been downgraded to 1 in more than 7 million.

You might be breathing a sigh of relief (or you might say, “Hey, I still buy lottery tickets.”)

In any case, if you really want an excuse to cry that the sky is falling, there is one asteroid that will actually pass by the Earth closer than the orbit of some satellites this coming February 15^th. It’s called 2012DA14 and it’s about 45 meters across—say, a large building lot.

Checking your home insurance policy fine print for asteroids?

People are already saying we need to wake up and prepare defenses against this kind of hazard, and there are projects in the brainstorming stages, but it will be years before any of them are ready.

For now, we call these objects “near-Earth asteroids”. Maybe one day we’ll call them “target practice”.